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Chadwick Matlin, The Washington Post
I am now officially a deflation bull.
My rational: we are heading into a period of massive credit deleveraging - consumer credit is falling, banks are pulling back lending and the savings rate is rising. A new secular trend is emerging and it has credit contraction written all over it (despite the best efforts of our government). This is not a bad thing in the long-term - we need a massive leverage cleanse. But in the near- to mid-term, the lack of credit creation will cap demand growth.
Furthermore, money supply in the fiat system is composed of two parts - 1) the monetary base, and, 2) credit expansion of that base. Although inflation bulls keep railing against the Fed’s current expansionary monetary initiatives, the Fed’s printing press is a small drop in the monetary bucket relative to outstanding credit.
My new favorite econ blogger, Mish, offers a mathematical model for thinking about monetary expansion and contraction in a fiat system:
Fm = Fb + MV(Fc)
Fm = Fiat Money Total
Fb = Fiat Monetary Base
Fc = Fiat Credit, the amount of credit on the balances sheets of institutions in excess of Fb
MV(Fc) is the market value Fc
Inflation is an expansion of Fm
Deflation is a contraction of Fm

As long as the market value of fiat credit (MV(Fc)) dwarfs the fiat monetary base (Fb) (which it does), and the market value of fiat credit (MV(Fc)) is declining at a greater rate than fiat monetary base (Fb) is being created (which it is), the Fed’s massive cash printing efforts will do little to push the inflationary needle.
To see this illustrated with data, growth in credit has dwarfed growth in base money over the past few decades.